using mean hash rate as a predictor variable — WARNING: This is not financial advice. Trading can get you REKT very quickly. Only do it if you know what you are doing and have fully comprehended all of the tax and legal obligations and sought the advice of a licensed financial advisor. Background NB this is super simplified — for…

A probabilistic approach to Bitcoin trading (cont.) — In Part I, I estimated the daily percent returns of Bitcoin as Cauchy with scale 0.016 and location 0.0017. This enabled us to calculate the probability of a given daily event of profit or loss. In this part of the series, I extend this approach to calculating the likelihood of…

Challenging the popular understanding — Abstract This article attempts to completely invalidate the statistics behind the idea that there is any stock-to-flow relationship to Bitcoin price. The proposed Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) model is shown to be seriously deficient due to the serial correlation in the residuals. The Engle-Granger method is shown to be not usable…

A probabilistic approach to Bitcoin trading — SUMMARY I present a distribution that can be used to model the percent daily returns of Bitcoin. Using this model, I identify that Bitcoin has a mild net positive return and give a formula to estimate the probability of return events. This model can be used to identify and quantify the…

A brief look into the new model and the prediction intervals it may bring — WARNING: This is not financial advice. Entertainment purposes only. In this article I will explore the regression identified by PlanB in his latest article. In particular, I will identify the prediction interval for the next halving cycle. > http://my.paynym.is/+curlymeadow8D1. In PlanB’s article, he identifies four transitionary phases that hold in congruence to the different stock to flow ratios. The…

No dog, no road — just drunk — ABSTRACT This article explores if there is a relationship of time to Bitcoin price. The proposed log-log model [1, 2 & 3] is tested for statistical validity against the least squares assumptions, for stationarity in each variable and for potential spurious relationships using the Engle-Granger approach for cointegration. …

Using Monte-Carlo simulation and Geometric Brownian Motion If you enjoy my work, please dont forget to hold down the clap button! Motivation In a discussion panel [1], economics professor and time series guru Sebastian Kripfganz showed that the there was potentially some positive drift to the Bitcoin price (and that it could explain for the most part what…

No, volatility isn’t decreasing — the fact is, it is most likely undefined. — WARNING: This is not financial advice. Trading can get you REKT very quickly. Only do it if you know what you are doing and have fully comprehended all of the tax and legal obligations and sought the advice of a licensed financial advisor. The Bitcoin daily return distribution (in percentage…

An oversimplification of a seemingly reasonable concept sold on bamboozling (wrong) statistics, data mining and confirmation bias — “Everyone then who hears these words of mine and does them will be like a wise man who built his house on the rock. And the rain fell, and the floods came, and the winds blew and beat on that house, but it did not fall, because it had been…